Saturday, January 14, 2012

Divisional Round Preview: Saturday

As the NFL enters the Elite Eight, many teams take the field for the first time this postseason, looking to leave their footprints on the game while ending the hopes of others doing the same.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers:
Winners of nine games in-a-row, including the postseason, the Drew Brees-led New Orleans Saints head to the City by the Bay to engage in what should be a hard fought battle for a ticket to the NFC Championship game.

After getting on to a slow start last week and overcoming two early turnovers against the Detroit Lions, Brees and Co. exploded much like that have all season long with arguably the greatest offense in league history. Brees continued his record-setting season, throwing for 466 yards that included 3 touchdown passes and no interceptions.

Colston had a monster game to open the
postseason and could be prime for
another in San Francisco.
Wide receiver Marques Colston caught seven of Brees' thirty-three completions for 120 yards, averaging 17.1 yards per catch. He could be Brees' main target once again against San Francisco.

Most of New Orleans' success in recent years has come at home, something they continued this season. The Saints posted an 8-0 home record during the regular season and averaged 41.1 points per game. However, they will be a long way from home Saturday and need to show many they can play on the road if they want to capture another Super Bowl title.

All three of the Saints' losses this season came on the road, where their offense is not at potent. Sean Payton's offense averaged just 21.5 point per game away from the Superdome and in the franchise history, the Saints have never won a road playoff game, going 0-4.

If that weren't enough, New Orleans is taking on one of the stingiest defenses in the league.

Ranked as the top rushing defense in the NFL, the 49ers will need to improve their pass defense to stop the high powered Saints air attack. New Orleans was the top passing offensive in the league this year, averaging 334.2 yards per game, while the San Francisco secondary wasn't that good.

A Jim Harbaugh-led defense ranked 16th in pass defense, but flourished in a number of other major defensive categories. The Niners' 38 takeaways (23 interceptions, 15 fumbles) were a NFL-best, tying them with the Green Bay Packers. They were also in the top five in opponents rushing yards per game (1st), opponents points per game (2nd) and opponents yards per game (4th).

With Willis healthy, the Niners are
hungry in their first playoff
appearance since 2002.
A healthy Patrick Willis should also add energy and leadership to an already dangerous defense.

On offense, San Francisco is led by former first-overall pick Alex Smith, but rely on a heavy dose of running back Frank Gore to keep the chains moving. Gore played in all 16 games this season and rushed for over a 1,000 yards for the sixth time in his career. The Niners will need him to pound the rock and control the clock if they are to have any chance of ending Bree's magical season.

One thing to watch for his the play-calling of Saint's defensive coordinator Greg Williams. It is no secret that Williams has made New Orleans the most blitz-happy defense in the NFL, but he might refrain from doing that too much against Smith and Co. Why?

Smith was the fourth-best quarterback in the league this season when facing the blitz. Showing his poise in the pocket with the extra rusher, Smith had a 96.0 passer rating against the blitz, while throwing 8 TDs compared to only 1 interception.

NO X-Factor: Gregg Williams


SF X-Factor: Patrick Willis


New Orleans, 31-24


Denver Broncos at New England Patriots:
The magical story that is the Denver Broncos and Tim Tebow continues Saturday in Foxborough. There they take on the highly regarded New England Patriots in a rematch of their Week 15 meeting in Denver. A game that ended Denver's impressive six-game winning streak and sent them on a three-game tail spin.

That was until last week, when Tebow and Co. shocked many by upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers and their No. 1 ranked defense in overtime, 29-23. Now they are faced with task of handing Tom Brady his third straight home postseason loss.

Von Miller has been a defensive force in
his rookie campaign
Tebow will be without leading receiver Eric Decker, who injured his knee last week in the win over the Steelers. However, in their 41-23 loss to New England on Dec. 18, the Broncos ran for 252 yards, which could be a major factor given the playing conditions.

While many discuss Tebow as the main ingredient for success in New England, it will need to be the young Bronco defense that hold the key to their success and needs to contain Brady. A defense that still looks like it will be without the 16-year veteran presence of safety Brian Dawkins.

Linebacker Von Miller, along with another rookie, safety Quinton Carter, will need to help veteran Champ Bailey command a defense up against some of the most dynamic offensive weapons in the game.

As for the Patriots, Brady is not use to sharing the limelight, but that is exactly what he's done this week with Tebow coming to town.

While many are concerned about how the Patroit defense will handle Tebow a second time around, Brady is worried solely on how to beat a franchise that he hasn't had much success against in his career. Brady is 2-6 in his career against the Broncos, one of those wins coming this year.

To make matters worse, head coach Bill Belichick's is only 4-10 all-time against the Broncos and is 4-6 since becoming the head coach of the Patriots.

Gronkowski could follow in Aaron Hernandez's
footsteps and have a big game against
Denver.
In the Patriots' win over Denver earlier this year Tebow's former teammate at Florida and tight end, Aaron Hernandez, torched the Broncos secondary for 126 yards and a TD. With Denver sure to not let that happen again, look Rob Gronkowski to continue his record-setting season and be one of Brady's main targets like he has been all season long.

New England, who had won ten straight playoff games with Brady under center until they lost to Denver in 2005 division-round, has lost three straight postseason games, including two straight at home.

All that talk can come to an end if Brady and Belichick end Tebow's improbable run.

DEN X-Factor: Von Miller


NE X-Factor: Rob Gronkowski


Denver, 24-21

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